Innovative Digital Tool Predicts Local Energy Trends for the Next Decade

Swedish municipalities are increasingly concerned about power grid capacity shortages. To support better planning, the Mälardalen Energy Agency (MEA) has developed a unique digital simulation tool that forecasts future electricity demand.

Using national energy statistics, local energy strategies, and power consumption templates commonly used by Swedish Distribution System Operators (DSOs), the tool can generate forecasts up to 2035. Developed in collaboration with the municipality of Arboga as part of the EU-funded project Elsmarta Östra Mellansverige, which runs until October 2026, it helps local and regional authorities plan for sustainable energy distribution. The project is funded through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

“We hope to inspire others facing similar challenges,” says Ivan Barck, project leader at MEA.

The simulation considers key factors such as new residential areas, business developments, and increasing demand for electric vehicle charging, offering a comprehensive outlook on future energy needs.

Strengthening the Grid for a Sustainable Future

The tool’s primary goal is to anticipate when local electricity demand will exceed grid capacity, allowing municipalities and DSOs to plan grid reinforcements proactively and reduce the risk of shortages.

“It’s crucial to understand how community growth will impact power usage over time. To meet our climate goals, we must ensure that electrification and renewable energy adoption are supported by a strong and resilient power grid,” says Ivan Barck.

By providing data-driven insights, this innovative forecasting tool helps municipalities make informed decisions, ensuring a stable and efficient energy supply for years to come.

“Many of the municipalities we are in contact with express concern about power grid capacity shortage but are unsure of how and when it will affect their development.”

Lina Gellermark,
CEO of The Malardalen Energy Agency.

This best practice is extracted from our publication ‘Sustainable Regions in Action‘. Discover more best practices here!