Carbon bombs: the fossil fuel projects dooming the phase out

In a world grappling with the profound consequences of climate change, a new report shines a stark light on a critical issue hindering our progress: the increase in fossil fuel extraction projects. Titled the “Production Gap Report 2023″, this comprehensive analysis underscores the urgent need to realign global fossil fuel production with climate goals to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

This report is coming out at the same time as an online interactive map referencing all the so-called “carbon bombs”, which are highly carbon-emitting fossil fuel ventures, threatening the achievement of the Paris Agreement objectives of carbon emission reduction.

This report and map reveal an alarming reality: new fossil fuel projects are flourishing across the world, while they must stop to effectively phase out fossil fuels and fight climate change. Despite international agreements and climate commitments, many governments, companies, banks, and insurance continue to support and expand fossil fuel production.

The Report

The report is a collaborative effort involving experts from over 30 countries that tracks the misalignment between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and the levers necessary to meet climate targets.

The Map

This mapping project has been developed by Data for Good, a community of 4 000 tech experts volunteering for general interest projects, and the NGO éclaircies. It lists not only the extraction ventures but also the banks and companies that are behind those highly harmful projects. This mapping tool reveals that the 425 listed carbon bombs consume twice the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget.

Main Takeaways from the report

1. Misalignment with Climate Goals: Governments worldwide plan to produce over double the compatible amount of fossil fuels by 2030, jeopardizing our climate goals. This misalignment highlights the urgent need for a well-managed and equitable energy transition.
2. Urgent Reduction Targets: To mitigate risks associated with stranded assets, governments must adopt immediate and long-term reduction targets for fossil fuel production. Countries with higher transition capacities should lead by example, aiming for faster reductions than the global average.
3. Fossil Fuel Production Levels: Under current government plans, global coal, oil, and gas production would significantly exceed 1.5°C-consistent pathways. Despite global commitments, major producer countries have yet to pledge reductions in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
4. Need for Transparency: Transparency is key. Governments must openly share their plans, projections, and support for fossil fuel production, ensuring alignment with climate goals. Transparency fosters accountability and informed decision-making.
5. Stranded Assets and Risks: Many fossil fuel projects are at risk of becoming stranded assets as global demand for coal, oil, and gas is expected to peak and decline. Acknowledging this reality is crucial for sustainable economic planning.
6. Accelerated Phase-Out: A near-total phase-out of coal production and substantial reductions in oil and gas production are necessary by 2040 and 2050, respectively. Continued fossil fuel use is incompatible with a safe and livable future.
7. Additional Reasons for Phase-Out: Beyond climate concerns, fossil fuel extraction causes immediate harm to communities, ecosystems, and economies. Recognizing these non-climatic impacts underscores the urgency of our transition away from fossil fuels.

Main Takeaways from the map

1. Stopping one carbon bombs is saving gigatonnes of CO2 emissions: A carbon bomb* is a fossil fuel extraction project that will generate more than one gigatonne of CO₂ (1 GtCO₂) over its remaining lifetime. There are currently 425 carbon bombs in the world, either already operating or in starting phase. These projects significantly threaten the Paris Agreement climate targets, which call for a certain carbon budget to be respected in order to stay below 1.5°C warming compared to the pre-industrial era.
2. Carbon bombs represent around 45% of oil and gas extraction projects and 25% for coal of the total emissions likely to be generated by the entire fossil fuel extraction sector. These few projects each represent a high level of emission, which makes them a priority to tackle: defusing a single bomb means stopping the equivalent of hundreds of more fragmented projects.
3. New investments in fossil fuel were banned in 2021: IEA executive director called for a ban on new investments in oil, gas and coal after 2021. 40% had not started in 2020, but every year, more and more carbon bombs enter into operating phase.
4. Cancelling all new carbon bombs is urgent. 169 out of 425 carbon bombs had not started extraction in 2020. Since then, more than 20 of these projects have started up. It is essential to avoid the activation of all projects that have not yet started.
5. Gradually phasing out all carbon bombs having already started extraction, by putting them in “harvest mode”, which means naturally declining output of producing oil and gas fields, a scenario that is described by the IEA as a no new investment scenario.

Conclusion

The Production Gap Report 2023 and the Carbon Bombs online mapping underscore the imperative for nations to phase out all fossil fuels, starting now. Immediate and concerted action, it also serves as a wake-up call for policymakers, urging them to confront the challenges head-on. Informed decision-making, transparency, and swift, decisive policy changes need to be undertaken, to ensure climate resilience and a sustainable future for all.

The Production Gap Report 2023 and the Carbon Bombs online mapping recall the imperative for nations to phase out all fossil fuels, starting now.

 

More information on the report here.

More information on the Carbon Bombs mapping.

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